GE ’24: Foyle Constituency Profile…

3 women and 2 men smiling

This was the safest Westminster constituency in Northern Ireland in 2019, with 17,110 votes separating the winner, Colum Eastwood (SDLP) from the second placed Elisha McCallion (SF). McCallion had won the seat in 2017. Prior to that the SDLP had held the seat at every election since the constituency was created in 1983. The changes made to the constituency boundaries last November were not substantial. Candidates John Boyle, Aontú Sandra Duffy, Sinn Féin Colum Eastwood, SDLP Rachael Ferguson, Alliance Shaun …

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GE ’24: Mid Ulster Constituency Profile…

green field under blue shy

This was the sixth safest Westminster constituency in Northern Ireland in 2019, with 9,537 votes separating the winner, Francie Malloy (Sinn Féin), from Keith Buchanan (DUP). Malloy had held the seat since a by-election in 2013. Prior to that the seat had only been held by a nationalist for 10 out of the 63 years since it was created in 1950. Malloy is not standing again. The seat covers a rural area to the west of Lough Neagh, including part …

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GE ’24: Newry and Armagh Constituency Profile…

Newry and Armagh delivered a 9,287 majority for Micky Brady (Sinn Féin), with William Irwin (DUP) in second place. The constituency was only created in 1983. For the first three years it had a unionist MP but has been nationalist ever since. The changes made to the constituency boundaries last November were not substantial. Candidates Pete Byrne, SDLP Dáire Hughes, Sinn Féin Sam Nicholson, UUP Keith Ratcliffe, TUV Samantha Rayner, Conservative Liam Reichenberg, Aontú Gareth Wilson, DUP Helena Young, Alliance …

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GE ’24: North Antrim Constituency Profile…

man standing on rock in the middle of clip

This was the fourth safest Westminster constituency in Northern Ireland in 2019, with 12,721 votes separating the winner, Ian Paisley Jr (DUP) from the second placed Robin Swann (UUP). Paisley took over the seat from his father. It has been in the family for 52 years. It had always been held by a unionist since it was created in 1885. The changes made to the constituency boundaries last November were not substantial Candidates Jim Allister, TUV Helen Maher, SDLP Philip …

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GE ’24: North Down Constituency Profile…

amusement park surrounded with tall and green trees under blue and gray skies

North Down had the sixth smallest majority in Northern Ireland in 2019, with only 2.968 votes separating the winner, Stephen Farry (Alliance) from Alex Easton (DUP). Previously the constituency had always been held by a unionist since its first creation in 1885. The changes made to the constituency boundaries last November were not substantial. Candidates Chris Carter, Independent Tim Collins, UUP Alex Easton, Independent Unionist Stephen Farry, Alliance Barry McKee, Green Déirdre Vaughan, SDLP The DUP, TUV, Conservatives and Sinn …

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GE ’24: South Down Constituency Profile…

This was the second most marginal Westminster constituency in Northern Ireland in 2019, with only 1,620 votes separating the winner, Chris Hazard (Sinn Féin) from the runner-up Michael Savage (SDLP). The seat has been in nationalist hands since 1987, firstly with the SDLP and since 2017 with Sinn Féin. The changes made to the constituency boundaries last November were not substantial, although its electorate is now 9% smaller. Candidates Diane Forsythe, DUP Chris Hazzard, Sinn Féin Rosemary McGlone, Aontú Colin …

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GE ’24: Strangford Constituency Profile…

There was a majority of 7,091 votes in 2019 for the winner, Jim Shannon (DUP) over his Alliance challenger, Kellie Armstrong. The seat was created in 1983 and has always been unionist. Shannon has held it since 2010. The changes made to the constituency boundaries last November were not substantial. Candidates Alexandra Braidner, Green Gareth Burns, Independent Garreth Falls, Independent Michelle Guy, Alliance Barry Hetherington, Conservative Ron McDowell, TUV Will Polland, SDLP Jim Shannon, DUP Richard Smart, UUP Candidates’ electoral …

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Upper Bann Constituency Profile – GE’24

This was the eighth safest Westminster constituency in Northern Ireland in 2019, with 8,210 votes separating the winner, Carla Lockhart (DUP) from Sinn Féin’s John O’Dowd. The seat was created in 1983 and has always returned a unionist. The changes made to the constituency boundaries last November were not substantial. Candidates Kate Evans, UUP Carla Lockhart, DUP Catherine Nelson, Sinn Féin Malachy Quinn, SDLP Eóin Tennyson, Alliance Candidates’ electoral history   Vote shares by designation There were no changes to …

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GE ’24: West Tyrone Constituency Profile…

This Westminster constituency gave Órfhlaith Begley (Sinn Féin) a majority of 7,478 votes over Thomas Buchanan (DUP). The constituency was created in 1997 and has been in nationalist hands since 2001. Begley was originally elected in a by-election in 2018. The changes made to the constituency boundaries last November were not substantial. Candidates Órfhlaith Begley, Sinn Féin Matthew Bell, UUP Tom Buchanan, DUP Stephen Donnelly, Alliance Leza Marie Houston, Aontú Stephen Lynch, Conservative Daniel McCrossan, SDLP Stevan Patterson, TUV Candidates’ …

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The Paradoxical LucidTalk Poll: Party Fortunes and Westminster Prospects…

  Colum’s daring to hope again, Gavin’s nervous, Michelle’s wondering why, and Doug, Jim and Naomi all wear broad smiles, at least for the time it takes them to read the BT’s latest Lucid Talk poll. DUP: This is the first poll since the dramatic fall of Jeffrey Donaldson and all eyes will have turned first to the DUP figure. And it’s not good. The party has lost all the gains it had made since it fell into second place …

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Will Jim Allister stand in Lagan Valley?

I want to examine the TUV’s current strategy which could have a significant impact on the direction of political unionism. There are two alternative strategies available to them. With one, Jim Allister taking to the hustings in Lisburn could well be essential to its success. With the other, were he to stick to Ballymena it would almost certainly fail. I start from the assumption that the TUV objective is to turn the greatest part of political unionism against what Allister …

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Return of Stormont has zero impact on party fortunes – new poll confirms…

We have now had two opinion polls conducted since Stormont opened its doors for business again and both tell the same story. So far at least it has not moved the dial on party support by a jot. Today’s Liverpool University poll in the Irish News is within a whisker the same as the LucidTalk poll published three weeks ago and you can see from the graphs below how steady party support has remained for the last year. It is …

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Donaldson’s prayers answered, Sinn Féin solid, Allister in a bind – LucidTalk poll…

Two figures in today’s Belfast Telegraph tell the tale. 72% of DUP voters back Jeffrey’s decision to return to Stormont, and the TUV vote share stands at only 6%. Donaldson could hardly have hoped that the first poll since he bit the bullet would prove so favourable. This is not just good news for Donaldson, but also for the survival prospects of the Executive and Assembly and for all those parties who want the institutions to work. Meanwhile Michelle O’Neill …

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Win, lose or drawn-out struggle? – How to read the first poll verdict on the DUP’s return to Stormont…

photo of bulb artwork

The struggle for the soul of party-political unionism, which has raged for over three years and brought devolved government to a stand-still, entered a potentially decisive stage when Jeffrey Donaldson led his party back into Stormont. Where previously DUP leaders had sought to blur the dividing lines almost to invisibility, both between the DUP and the TUV and within the DUP itself, those lines have suddenly been solidified, reinforced into battlelines. With the publication of the LucidTalk poll starting on …

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Better news for UUP and SDLP in latest poll…

a yellow and orange ball

Liverpool University have a new poll out in the Irish News and it makes better reading for SDLP and UUP supporters than the last two LucidTalk polls. Unlike LucidTalk, which asked about voting intentions in an Assembly election, the focus of the Liverpool poll was on the coming Westminster election. Whether that distinction means much to the people sampled is a very open question, it is perfectly possible that most interpreted the question as being about which party they support …

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DUP and Alliance up, UUP down: Latest LucidTalk poll…

forest trees marked with question marks

Political geeks (and let’s face it if you are on this site and reading this post that probably includes you) are starting to think about the forthcoming Westminster election. Widely expected this November (or possibly 30th October, according to The Times), legally the government could hold off until 28th of January. And, yes, that is a Tuesday, but there is no law which says that elections must be held on a Thursday. Of course, an election then, or on the …

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Big 3 parties consolidate: August LucidTalk poll…

white ceramic mug on table

It’s hardly surprising that the Belfast Telegraph led its reporting of the latest LucidTalk poll with the PSNI figures, leaving us to wait two more days for the voting intention results. Although the story they tell is important for Northern Ireland politics, it is a story which most will find predictable in its detail and unchanging in its implications. According to the data the DUP continues to beat back the TUV threat, the SDLP continues to leak support to Sinn …

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How much trust should we put in the Opinion Polls?

round red and white Trust signage

As we eagerly await the publication on Saturday of the first Lucid Talk poll since May’s Council elections…. There can be few places where such an opening would not be greeted with derision: but I’m hoping that Slugger is not one of them. But best be on the safe side….. As most of us eagerly await the publication on Saturday of the first Lucid Talk poll since last May’s Council elections it’s a good time to look back at how …

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What the council votes say about the next Assembly and Westminster elections: Strangford, U Bann, W Tyrone plus NI Summary…

empty pavement

This is the last set of constituencies in this series. It coincides with the publication of the Final Report of the NI Boundary Commission. As expected there has only been minor change since the Commissions previous proposals. Some 1,000 electors in Abbey ward who were previously being allocated to East Antrim will now be placed in North Belfast. With Westminster turnouts below 70% this represents at best 700 voters. Upper Bann gains some 2,600 electors from Gransha ward who were …

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What the council votes say about the next Assembly and Westminster elections: N Down, S Antrim, S Down…

buildings near body of water

For a full explanation of the various charts used in this piece please see the introduction in the first article in this series. What the council votes say about the next Assembly and Westminster elections: East, North and West Belfast… – Slugger O’Toole (sluggerotoole.com) North Down The decline in unionist vote share since last year’s Assembly election looks like another case of differential turnout. But it is not. This is because Alex Easton, the MLA who left the DUP in …

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