Vote often, vote often?

Just how many ticks and crosses might you be asked to make in May 2011? Council elections (for 26 councils) NI Assembly elections Electoral reform (Alternative Vote) referendum All of these opportunities to exercise your democratic right are pencilled in for Thursday 5 May next year. The Welsh Assembly elections were also expected to be held on 5 May. There is all party support in Wales for those to be delayed for a week to prevent voter confusion. No doubt the …

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Any graphic trends?

Stats came from Ark and were slightly out for SF in 2007, it doesn’t affect the trends but corrected version can be seen here. It can be difficult to spot all the trends that may occur in our election results with random factors of personalities in Europe, come and go minor Unionist parties, independents and small parties. I have tried to simplify matters a little by taking results from 1996 on, removing European results, smaller parties and Independents to produce the above graph of  party percentage of the vote for …

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Implications for Assembly election?

While this election can’t predict the outcome of next years’ Assembly election it may give some pointers to possible target seats and vulnerabilities. Most constituencies seem to indicate no change likely but the following show some possible change: Fermanagh South Tyrone – possibility of SDLP dropping sole seat and a SF gain North Antrim – TUV target seat from DUP South Antrim – big hitters weren’t on field but one of the SDLP/Alliance could be vulnerable to UUP gain Upper …

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David Cameron comes to Northern Ireland…

David Cameron is expected to tell the people of Northern Ireland today they will not have to carry  a disproportionate share of financial savings. The aspiring (or according to Peter Robinson last year putative) PM is on a flying visit to Belfast to boost his sister party, the Ulster Unionists. David Cameron angered members of the Democratic Unionist Party last week when he signalled over dependence on the public sector would have to be addressed. This was widely interpreted by political rivals as …

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Sinn Fein’s failure an intellectual embodiment of partition…

Anthony McIntrye, writing just after the Republic’s election, argues that partition was the key to Sinn Fein’s poor performance in last month’s election. Not least in the sheer unfamiliarity with the political economy of the south of the party leader: …he more resembled a luminary of the 1850s American Know Nothing Movement than a serious modern European political leader. His awareness of the issues in the Republic has improved little since attention was first drawn to this handicap by Paul …

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